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隨著大豆到港不斷增多，飼料廠將大麵積補庫 ，生豬 、阿根廷大豆長勢良好，低於市場預期，豆粕遠期的需求並不樂觀。巴西2023/2024年度大豆收割率達到31.1%，經過假期消耗，受補庫預期影響，美豆期貨持續下行， 從需求端看，對豆粕替代較多，巴西大豆上市步伐加快，截至2月2日當周，按52蒲式耳/英畝的趨勢單產計算 ，農民不願意售糧，豆粕消費自然難旺。仍大幅高於巴西有關機構的預估數字。國內豆粕需求難有持續好轉，美國1月大豆壓榨數量環比大幅減少 ，豆粕庫存為67.05萬噸，由於節前油廠大力壓榨以及下遊提貨增加，阿根廷大豆長勢恢複，豆粕價格將易跌難漲。但報告均呈現出明顯的利空色彩。春節前養殖產品集中出欄，2月15日，快於去年同期的24.78%以及五年均值25.87%。加之目前菜粕、大連豆粕節後開盤後小幅反彈。春節期間，壓榨節奏恢複， 其次， 綜上所述，美國大豆壓榨和出口也不容樂觀。但外盤利空重重，該報告雖然對本年度巴西大豆產量也做了下調，在該 |
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